Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 106.697647 121.802932 138.740550 159.225874 183.444482 211.302972 245.972743
2026-01-25 85.880796 104.900909 128.051403 158.606481 198.326290 248.840329 318.962168
2026-02-01 71.576961 91.840237 118.040392 154.980741 206.671845 277.897759 386.102221
2026-02-08 61.508046 82.028456 109.862619 151.257863 212.813539 303.574541 452.687661
2026-02-15 54.085038 74.468389 103.242177 148.013043 218.169580 327.956922 521.509838
2026-02-22 51.301600 72.906925 104.645868 156.345816 241.855660 384.303291 655.227475
2026-03-01 47.363574 69.079984 102.049617 157.854430 254.490068 424.424973 770.092413
2026-03-08 44.156688 65.942089 100.028649 159.812418 267.902529 468.064747 902.806381
2026-03-15 41.011866 62.532127 97.114139 159.727382 277.445847 506.054819 1034.101962
2026-03-22 39.796833 62.070016 98.923860 168.044343 303.823886 582.193512 1272.943114
2026-03-29 38.439955 61.208653 99.908937 174.910283 328.455861 660.011189 1542.523524
2026-04-05 36.915184 59.895585 99.924912 179.878910 349.990725 735.810911 1834.896833
2026-04-12 34.945110 57.706304 98.279604 181.679012 365.816680 803.957005 2139.499959
2026-04-19 32.892411 55.190104 95.781075 181.444263 377.196096 864.476651 2449.691634
2026-04-26 30.576253 51.994446 91.679819 177.324317 378.881576 900.647066 2698.603780
2026-05-03 28.472216 49.018160 87.716284 172.990017 379.315122 933.714507 2953.747451
2026-05-10 26.636038 46.397408 84.202935 169.191122 380.406723 969.004466 3235.977687
2026-05-17 26.358455 46.721991 86.598866 178.984512 418.141617 1123.176444 4087.235015
2026-05-24 25.305231 45.447720 85.593037 180.759829 434.979453 1218.136866 4750.208755
2026-05-31 24.379598 44.351312 84.851296 183.063799 453.783365 1325.766510 5555.026391
2026-06-07 23.316735 42.897558 83.213514 182.963816 465.735058 1413.981332 6332.794865
2026-06-14 23.121252 43.196123 85.400051 192.759245 509.231301 1632.782151 8058.402485
2026-06-21 22.780128 43.162216 86.842585 200.857826 549.521063 1856.686281 10086.252039